“The only constant in the world is change,” goes a popular saying. But is this really true — or is change rather hyped up? After all, management gurus, business consultants, futurists, innovation consultants, change management experts and the media, among others, propagate the cliché that we’re living in a world where the only constant is change to sell their services. Today, let’s take a closer look at change to gain a deeper understanding of what really changes — and what doesn’t, so that we can become more flexible business thinkers.

The only constant in this world is change. Take out a piece of paper and a pen. For two minutes, think about what has changed in the world in the past 25 years. List down all aspects you can think of to gain a deeper appreciation for change.

When you review your list, most of your specific items will fall into one of the following wider categories: Economic changes (such as globalization and the global integration of economies and businesses); political changes (such as the end of communism and the related fall of the iron curtain, the rise of China, and so on); technological changes (such as the IT intensification with all its constant flux of new gadgets); related to this, communication and media changes (such as the rise of the Internet with all its new forms of communication via e-mails, SMS, social networking and communication platforms, etc.), transportation (e.g., budget airlines, improved public transportation offerings such as the BTS and MRT in Bangkok); and health, leisure and lifestyle-related changes (e.g., wellness trends such as spas, fitness and yoga studios, plastic surgery, etc.). Clearly, looking back, most people agree that during the past 25 years we have witnessed huge change, massive change, or as futurist James Canton even put it: exponential change. So the truism seems to be right after all: “The only constant in this world is change.” But only if we think sloppily and block out the deeper side of change.

Learn to differentiate between constants and change. A popular song of the rock band Bon Jovi is titled “The More Things Change.” What initially seems like an oxymoron starts making sense once we consciously ask “What’s the opposite of change?” In his book Mind Set!, the famous futurist John Naisbitt explains that while many things change, most things remain constant:

• While the way we live changes, the cycle of life with its most fundamental events and activities remains constant. Think about it: What do we essentially do as human beings? We are born and grow. We learn and play. We move and act. We relax and sleep to recharge. We communicate. We work to make a living and do exchanges with each other. We create and use tools. We eat, drink and consume otherwise. We fall in and out of love. We age and mature to a peak where we start to decline. We get sick and — most of the time — recover. We die.
• While the way we live changes, basic values and motivations that drive us to action remain constant. Mankind shares a set of universal, fundamental values that constitute the essence of being human. For example, we all strive for factors such as accomplishment, balance and harmony, beauty, cheerfulness, belonging to a community, creation, expansion and enlightenment, excitement, fairness, freedom, health and vitality, love, oneness, responsibility, security, truth, and validation. Likewise, regardless of what changes in the world, all human beings strive to avoid pain and related negative emotional states, such as: anger, disappointment, discomfort, fear, frustration, guilt, hurt, inadequacy, loneliness, and overload. Thus, whatever changes in the environment, the basic, universally appreciated human emotions and desires remain constant.

Bon Jovi seems to have a point when saying: “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” And John Naisbitt suggests a useful mindset to understand why: What changes is how we do things in detail. What remains the same — at least on the most fundamental level — is what we do and why we do it.

Substitute the spiral for the pendulum

Over 2,500 years ago, the Greek philosopher Heraclitus already noted: “We cannot step into the same river twice.” In their book Future Think, the futurists Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown take up this notion and introduce another useful mindset to think about change: Substitute the spiral for the pendulum. This mindset connects and binds the two dimensions change and constant. Let me explain.

Most aspects of life follow cyclical patterns, where certain events repeat over time. Business and economic activities are no exception. For example, an economic upswing driven by one sector (e.g., Internet) heats up until a speculative bubble (e.g., Dot-com bubble) bursts and sends the economy into a recession. After some time, another sector (e.g., real estate market) leads to fresh economic growth that gets more excessive until the next bubble bursts (financial crisis caused by the financial derivatives based on sub-prime mortgages). While these general patterns recur in regular sequences, the pendulum does not simply swing back to the old position — as other things in the environment have changed. Therefore, think about change more in the form of a spiral and consciously ask: “While we seem to face the same situation as before, what things have changed in the meantime?”

© Dr. Detlef Reis 2011. This article was published in parallel in the Bangkok Post under the same title on 1 September 2011.