A few months ago, I attended a tech conference in Bangkok that profoundly shifted my thinking. In one of the panel discussions, the moderator cited a recent performance statistic from Silicon Valley so staggering that it made my jaw drop — quite literally. I’ll get to that statistic in a moment, but first, let’s try a little mental experiment.

What Would You Take?

Imagine I gave you a choice:

• Option A: Take $1 million today — guaranteed.
• Option B: Take $1 today that doubles every day for 30 days.

Which would you choose?

Most people opt for the safe $1 million, thanks to the certainty effect in prospect theory: it describes how humans tend to prefer a smaller, certain gain over a potentially larger, yet uncertain and more complex one. 

But here’s the kicker: If you choose the doubling dollar, by day 30, you’d have over $1 billion — more than 1,000 times the alternative. Why? Because of exponential growth, something our human brains are notoriously bad at grasping.

Why This Matters: The Shift from the 5th to the 6th Wave of Innovation

Let’s connect the dots. The Fifth Wave of Technology Innovation, driven by information and communication technologies (ICT) and the Internet, was largely powered by Moore’s Law. One of the co-founders of Intel, Gordon Moore, famously observed that the processing power of microchips — or more precisely, the number of transistors on a chip — would double roughly every two years, while the size and cost of those chips would halve.

If we take 1984 — the year Apple launched the Macintosh — as the starting point, it took 40 years (until 2024) for that exponential growth to reach the equivalent of the “$1 million” level in our earlier thought experiment. That’s a long game — four decades of steady, compounding technological development.

From This… to That: 40 Years of Mind-Blowing Change

To truly appreciate the pace of change we're about to witness in the coming years, consider just how much the world has transformed since 1984:

Computers & Information Technology

• From bulky desktop computers to sleek laptops to tablets and foldable devices to wearable and ambient computing.
• From floppy disks to CD-ROMs and USB drives to cloud storage to distributed data on blockchain.
• From dial-up Internet to broadband to fiber and 5G to always-on, edge-based connectivity.
• From basic operating systems to intelligent assistants powered by AI.
• From offline, single-user software to collaborative cloud-based apps to AI-augmented productivity tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Perplexity.

Communication

• From rotary phones to cordless phones (with answering machines) to flip phones to smartphones to wearables and voice-controlled devices.
• From postal letters to telefax to email to instant messaging and real-time global communication.
• From physical meetings in the same room to video conference calls to holograms and AI-generated meeting notes.

Learning & Work

• From blackboards and textbooks to e-learning platforms and AI tutors.
• From offices with fax machines to remote work powered by Zoom, Slack, and AI copilots.
• From manual paperwork to real-time cloud collaboration.

Commerce & Retail

• From brick-and-mortar stores to online shops to 1-click checkout to same-day delivery to AI-driven shopping experiences.
• From cash registers to credit cards to contactless and mobile payments to crypto wallets & blockchain transactions.

Media & Entertainment

• From vinyl records and cassette tapes to CDs and MP3s to Spotify and YouTube.
• From TV with rabbit-ear antennas to streaming 4K content on demand.
• From printed TV guides to AI-curated recommendations on Netflix and TikTok.

Finance & Transactions

• From bank branches and tellers to mobile banking apps.
• From manual investing to algorithmic and AI-driven portfolio management.
• From cash and coins to contactless payments and cryptocurrencies.

Health & Well-being

• From paper medical charts to digital health records to wearables with live health tracking.
• From in-person visits only to telemedicine and AI-powered diagnostics.
• From generic medications to personalized treatments based on genetic profiles.

Everyday Life

• From paper maps to GPS navigation to real-time route optimization via AI.
• From analog cameras to smartphone photography to AI-enhanced image editing and generation.
• From dumb homes to smart homes controlled by voice and routines.

Enter the 6th Wave: AI and the New Exponential Law

The Sixth Wave of Technology Innovation is being driven by the convergence of three tech spaces:

• Digital technologies (AI, quantum computing, blockchain),
• Clean technologies (green energy, decarbonization, sustainability).
• Human-centric technologies (neuroscience, wellness tech, education),

Each of these domains is disruptive on its own. Together, they’re revolutionary — and AI sits at the epicenter, accelerating progress across all three.

Now, back to that conference moment — and the stat that made my jaw drop:

The price-performance ratio of AI chips is now doubling every 100 days.

Not every two years, like during the Fifth Wave under Moore’s Law. Every 100 days — or in other words: roughly every quarter.

Let that sink in: instead of taking 40 years to reach a million-fold improvement in capability, as we saw in the Fifth Wave, we’ll get there in just five years.

By the end of 2030, the AI technologies we use today will be 1,000,000 times more powerful.

This isn’t just a step change. It’s a quantum leap in speed, scale, and impact. 

So take another look at the examples of technological change during the Fifth Wave (and early Sixth Wave) listed above— changes that unfolded over four decades. Now, imagine changes of similar or even greater magnitude happening in just five years. That’s the new pace of progress fueled by a new exponential force and a new law of exponential quantum growth. That’s the reality of the Sixth Wave.

So What? What Does This Mean for You and Your Business?

If you're a creative leader, innovator, entrepreneur, or professional, now is the time to pause and reflect:

• What does this exponential growth of AI mean for our business?
• How do we need to pivot our products, services, solutions, and experiences in response to the rapidly unfolding AI revolution?
• In what ways must we evolve our business models, knowing that what made us money over the past 20 years likely won’t sustain us over the next five?
• How should I reskill and upskill myself and my team to stay relevant and ahead of the curve?
• What opportunities or threats will emerge as AI transforms every industry?
• Are we innovating fast enough — or are we at risk of being disrupted?

Since becoming aware of how quickly AI is evolving — and how comprehensively it will disrupt businesses and industries — I’ve been revisiting these questions with my team and trusted advisors. And truth be told, I’ve had a few sleepless nights. Some of the insights, concerns, and bold ideas we’ve uncovered have stayed with me long after our conversations ended.

Final Thought: Prepare Now or Be Left Behind

We’re entering a new exponential era. The next five years will redefine what’s possible — in business, in careers, in society. Don’t be the person who watches from the stands as others play and reinvent the game. Don’t be the person who chooses the $1 million when $1 billion is just around the corner.

Instead, understand the rapidly rising exponential curve. Anticipate the disruptive shifts. Ideate and imagine how to pivot or evolve your value offerings and business model. Then, take action on your best ideas now and, if needed, change course on the fly as new Sixth Wave technologies unfold and evolve. Remember Charles Darwin: “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”

• Explore the Future of Innovation Leadership: Eager to dive deeper into the Sixth Wave and discover how to future-proof your business through innovation? Check out my book Unleashing Wow: The Creative Leader’s Guide to Breakthrough Innovation — your roadmap to thriving in a world of constant disruption.
• Design Your Next Move with Thinkergy: Want to pivot your products, reinvent your business model, or spark real transformation? Let Thinkergy guide you through our proprietary X-IDEA innovation method & toolbox to create future-fit solutions tailored for the Sixth Wave. Contact us to get started.
• Upskill Your Team for the Exponential Age: The speed of change demands new mindsets and skill sets. Discover how Thinkergy’s training programs can help your leaders and teams build creative confidence, strategic foresight, and innovation agility — the essential capabilities for thriving in the decade ahead. Learn more.

© Dr. Detlef Reis 2025.